A former U.S. Trump administration official has issued a stark warning, claiming that the Russia economy collapse is inevitable if the West intensifies sanctions and tariffs on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil. The statement underscores Washington’s growing pressure on allies, particularly in Europe, to tighten the noose around Moscow’s war finances.
The Warning
The official, speaking in a televised interview, said, “The only way to cripple Putin’s war machine is to cut off his revenue at the source. That means more tariffs on countries still buying Russian oil. If Europe steps up, the Russian economy will be in total collapse within months.”
According to the former Trump aide, existing sanctions have weakened Russia’s economy but not enough to stop Moscow from funding its war in Ukraine. Energy exports remain Russia’s primary financial lifeline, with oil and gas accounting for more than 40% of government revenue.
Russia’s Resilience So Far
Despite sweeping Western sanctions since 2022, Russia has managed to maintain relative stability in its economy. The Kremlin redirected oil exports to countries like China, India, and Turkey, which refused to join Western bans. Discounted Russian crude has found eager buyers, cushioning Moscow from financial collapse.
However, analysts note that the long-term impact is visible. Inflation in Russia remains high, Western technology imports are restricted, and skilled labor shortages are mounting as citizens flee conscription or leave for better opportunities abroad.
EU’s Role in Escalating Pressure
The Trump official specifically urged the European Union to add more pressure by tightening enforcement of its price cap on Russian oil and imposing secondary tariffs on countries still engaging in trade with Moscow.
“The EU has the economic weight to push this further. If Brussels moves in lockstep with Washington, Russia will run out of options,” the official added.
Currently, the EU enforces a ban on most Russian crude imports and limits shipments through a $60-per-barrel price cap mechanism. But loopholes remain, with reports of “shadow fleets” of tankers transporting oil outside Western tracking systems.
Tariffs as a Weapon
The proposal for additional tariffs goes beyond sanctions. Tariffs would directly target countries purchasing Russian oil, raising their costs of trade and discouraging them from dealing with Moscow.
Critics, however, warn that such measures could escalate global energy prices, further straining economies already battling inflation. Nations like India and China, which have significantly increased their intake of Russian oil, are unlikely to bow to U.S. or EU tariffs without pushback.
Russia’s Counter-Narrative
Moscow has dismissed warnings of economic collapse as “Western propaganda.” Russian officials claim the economy is adapting and accuse the West of waging “economic warfare.”
President Vladimir Putin recently boasted that Russia’s GDP growth in 2024 has outpaced some European nations and argued that sanctions are hurting Western economies more than Russia. Still, independent economists paint a more fragile picture, warning of long-term stagnation.
Ukraine’s Stake in the Debate
For Kyiv, harsher sanctions and tariffs are critical. Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly called on the West to cut Russia’s oil revenue completely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued that every barrel of Russian oil sold translates into more funding for missiles and drones targeting Ukrainian cities.
Experts Weigh In
Economic experts are divided. Some agree with the Trump official’s view that sustained tariffs could push the Russia economy collapse narrative closer to reality. Others caution that Moscow’s pivot to Asia makes it difficult for the West to isolate Russia entirely.
A European economist noted, “Russia has proved more resilient than many expected. But its long-term trajectory is downward. Tariffs may speed up the pain but are unlikely to create immediate collapse unless coordinated globally.”
The Bigger Geopolitical Picture
The push for more tariffs also fits into a broader geopolitical strategy. Washington is not only trying to weaken Moscow but also test the commitment of allies like the EU, which has shown signs of fatigue in bearing the economic costs of sanctions.
If the EU aligns more closely with U.S. demands, Russia could face deeper isolation. If not, the Kremlin may continue to exploit divisions among Western allies.
Conclusion
The warning by a former Trump official that the Russia economy collapse is within reach underscores ongoing debates about how best to weaken Moscow’s war machine. With oil revenue sustaining Putin’s campaign, the call for harsher tariffs and EU pressure reflects growing urgency in Washington.
Whether such measures will bring about the “total collapse” predicted remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that economic warfare will remain a central front in the battle over Ukraine’s future.